Wargame Scenario
The year is 2036: Strategic competition between China and the United States in the Western Pacific remains intense but short of open conflict. Despite sustained political pressure and influence campaigns, Taiwan continues to function but now under KMT rule sympathetic to Beijing. China is still having difficulty dominating the Western Pacific. Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia all have deployed ground-and sea-launched conventional deep strike systems. These countries’ security ties to the United States have persisted.
Both China and the United States have succeeded in deploying large reusable heavy lift vehicles, which would be able to put a large constellation of space-based missile interceptors in LEO quickly and on short notice(each of these vehicles can place 800 “smart rock” space-based interceptors in low-earth orbit (LEO) with each launch).
A large, robust constellation of such interceptors could intercept a significant percentage of ballistic missiles in boost phase and also serve as space-to-space assault weapons. China and the United States have both just completed the development of similar “smart rock” technology, but the programs are highly classified in special access programs. Neither country has yet deployed a full constellation in space.
A small number of exquisite intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance and tracking satellites in geostationary orbit (GEO) support the interceptors in LEO and are already in place. The distance of these exquisite satellites from Earth provides them with some protection, but they are still vulnerable to attack.
China has continued expanding and modernizing its silo-based and mobile ICBM forces. Publicly observable construction suggests more than 300 new silos, though not all are believed to be filled or continuously deployed. China relies increasingly on systems capable of carrying multiple warhead configurations. China’s buildout prompted the Pentagon to propose a major U.S. nuclear missile camouflage, decoy, and mobility program, which would exponentially expand the possible aim points China would have to target to have any hope of knocking out America’s ICBM force.
Meanwhile, China has increased its deployment of its conventional ICBMs with MaRVed warheads and has exercised Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems (FOBS) on a routine basis. The United States has chosen to deploy ground-and sea-launched intermediate range hypersonic cruise and ballistic conventional systems in the Western Pacific, instead of developing its own conventional ICBMs.
Separately, public debate–both in China and the United States–about the benefits and risks of placing nuclear weapons in space intensifies. Articles appear in the South China Morning Post describing PLA war gaming and modeling of nuclear detonations in LEO and the knock-on effects. In the United States, the Defense Department announces that it, too, is studying this option to deter possible Chinese use and to examine how much damage such detonations might do to any U.S. space-based missile interceptor constellation.
Move 1:
In 2036, the U.S. and China are competing intensely in the Western Pacific while developing advanced space-based interceptor systems (“smart rocks”) capable of missile defense and space warfare, alongside expanding nuclear and hypersonic capabilities. After China announces plans to deploy its system, the U.S. reveals its superior launch capacity and initiates bilateral talks with China to negotiate limits, verification, and future deployment strategies, while preparing for potential negotiation failure.
Move 2:
By 2040, failed U.S.–China negotiations lead China to begin full deployment of its “Smart Hawk” space-based interceptor system, while suspicious disruptions to Chinese satellites—actually caused by natural space weather—raise fears of U.S. interference and escalate tensions. China considers demonstration tests of its system (ranging from reversible disruptions to destructive attacks), while the U.S. and private industry debate whether to respond by deploying their own systems and preparing potential targets.
Move 3:
By March 2040, China has deployed most of its “Smart Hawk” constellation, and escalating interference and close encounters between U.S. and Chinese satellites create a highly unstable and mistrustful space environment. Both sides consider extreme options—including threatening nuclear use in orbit—while legal, economic, and commercial concerns intensify, forcing urgent decisions amid rising risks of escalation and damage to the global space system.