June 2024 Chinese Attacks Paralyze Taiwanese Communications

Chinese Attacks Paralyze Taiwanese Communications

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Wargame Scenario

It’s late 2026 and nations and private have deployed ever-larger satellite constellations in low-Earth orbit (LEO), heightening the risk of collisions. One of these players – Taiwan – has expanded its Eutelstat OneWeb constellation and secured downlinks on nearby Japanese islands. Taiwan efforts to make its communications more secure triggers Beijing’s ire. China has been increasing its satellite presence in LEO and launches rendezvous satellites to reposition and remove debris.

When a space conjunction with Eutelstat One Web occurs, it’s unclear if it was an accident. China takes umbrage and a series of ambiguous actions in space and near Taiwan that not only jeopardize Taiwan’s ability to communicate to, from, and within the island; but damage some of America’s most important high-resolution spy satellites and disrupt major commercial satellite operations.

The game raises a number of questions. How should the U.S. and its allies respond when suspicious or hostile space conjunctions occur in LEO with dual-use and military satellites? What military, technical, and diplomatic power can the U.S. and its allies employ to prevent hostile actions in space; what additional powers or capabilities might help? Where do U.S. and allied leaders stand when it comes to protecting Taiwan and its need for secure communications with the outside world and within Taiwan?