NPEC War and Diplomatic Simulations

Simulation Format and Scenario:

Move one was a mock meeting of the U.S. National Security Council. The scenario was set in the present day, the summer of 2021. Throughout July 2021, U.S. intelligence agencies intercept communications between senior Iranian officials and Iran’s Supreme Leader suggesting that Iran would follow through on repeated threats to leave the NPT unless its right to enrichment and reprocessing was recognized and all economic sanctions were lifted. On July 27th, U.S. intelligence agencies receive information suggesting the Supreme Leader had decided Iran’s best option now was to build a nuclear bomb.

The next day, in consultation with their Israeli intelligence counterparts, CIA officials view Israeli photographic evidence that Iran is manufacturing nuclear implosion devices. U.S. intelligence agencies had previously determined that Iran assembled and tested a single device without highly enriched uranium (HEU), but the photographs the Israelis shared with the CIA were of the assembly of several devices, not one. On July 30th, The Israelis approach the U.S. Secretary of State with the photographic evidence and ask that the United States support a major Israeli strike against Iran’s implosion device plant. In specific, the Israelis ask the Secretary to provide U.S. air refueling to Israeli strike aircraft on their way to Iran. The Secretary refuses, stating that the United States will follow the rule of law and take diplomatic action first. The following day, the Israelis leak their photographic evidence to The New York Times, which runs the story with pictures late on the afternoon of Sunday, August 1st.

On the morning of August 2nd, the President holds a press conference and publicly states that, after conferring with the U.S. intelligence community, it is his belief Iran is in violation of the NPT. Within minutes, an Iranian foreign ministry press spokesman goes on TV rejecting the accusation, claiming the Israeli photos are fakes. This spokesman, then announces that Iran has begun the clock on withdrawing from the NPT. The spokesman notes that the clock would continue to run until the White House promises to block further Israeli military strikes against Iran and recognizes Iran’s entire nuclear program as being completely peaceful. That afternoon, the U.S. Senate passes a resolution calling on the Administration to take immediate action to enforce the NPT. The President calls for a National Security Council Principals meeting to draft a U.S. resolution to the U.N. Security Council. This is where move one begins.